Some people are upset over the, well, sneers by Barbara Bush and Chris Christie over the prospects of a 2012 candidacy by Sarah Palin. A lot of people who are devoted followers of Palin get very upset when someone criticizes her – especially if that criticism is seen as elitist snobbery. Are we seeing some sort of attempt to pre-set the 2012 primaries by forcing Palin out and allowing someone more “in” with the GOP establishment to get the nod?
You betcha!
Palin, herself, asserts that Mrs Bush’s comments are likely just the result of “blue blood” prejudice about someone of Palin’s decidedly middle class background. While Christie isn’t blue blood as the Bush’s, he’s of that east coast, establishment background. Don’t get me wrong, here: Christie would make an excellent President and if he ever did get the GOP nomination, I’d enthusiastically back him…but, still, he’s not of the same social background as Sarah Palin.
The reason why Palin is both deeply loved and greatly despised by different groups of people is because she represents a segment of the American population which has only rarely taken charge of the nation’s destiny before, but feels that now it must in order to save America. Palin, rising to power, would be beholden to no elites and would actually set an agenda which is for the middle class. This delights the middle class – frightens the Ruling Class.
The people backing Palin are the quiet men and women who do the right thing, never even want to rise high in the world of finance or fashion, raise their kids right, pay their taxes, serve in the military and do the real work of America. These people have, at times, been either Democrat or Republican, but while each party has managed to claim votes from them the people, themselves, have only rarely run the show. Its really been two sets of elites bidding for the support of this block of voters – who are not a majority (they probably constitute 45% of the population), but without whose support nothing can really get done.
Never forget that those in power tend to believe they are there because of moral and intellectual merit. While some are well disposed towards the broad mass of society, none of them really feel that the regular folks have what it takes to be in charge. Events tend to give such Ruling Class people confirmation of their views – most of the leadership is chosen from a small sub-section of the population, either born to the group or recruited in to it via schools and businesses. Al Gore is the perfect example of someone born in to the Ruling Class, Bill Clinton someone who was recruited in to it. All of them tend to share, to a greater or lesser degree, the conviction that they are some how, in some way, better than those they lead. And the higher up you go – and the longer a person has been in the higher ranks – the more pronounced this attitude is. While there can be wide divergence in views between such people, the ultimate conviction is that only one of them can possibly tackle the problems of the day.
Sarah Palin challenges that. So did Ronald Reagan, in his day. Going back further in American history, there is Andrew Jackson who threw the Ruling Class in to fits thinking that such a backwoods hick like him could be President. Those two are just about it for middle class people really rising to the top with their middle class identity intact – for the rest of America’s leaders – left and right; good, bad and indifferent – it has really just been one after another of Ruling Class people.
While the left side of the aisle does and will continue to hate Sarah Palin far more than even the most establishment part of the right, the establishment of the right will continue to doubt her – and try to exclude her. They did this to Reagan. First they hoped they could just use him as a base-enthuser and fund raiser. Then they hoped they could keep him away from leadership. Then they hoped they could control him, once he was in leadership. Sound familiar? Of course, Reagan wouldn’t be used, wouldn’t be denied and just did what he wanted to – proving, in the end, to be smarter, stronger and more tenacious than anyone – right or left – who came up against him. I think Palin will prove to be just like this – if, of course, she decides to run.
She may not, after all – there are increasing signs that she’s gearing up for it, but a lot of that is stuff you just have to do even if you merely wish to keep your options open. It could be that by the middle of 2011, Palin will find a candidate among the GOP prospects that she believes will do the right thing and, rather than run herself, she’ll throw her support to that person. But it may end up being that, surveying the field, she concludes that no one else can really do what needs to be done – and then she’ll get in. If she does get in, I hold she’ll win the GOP nomination…not because she’s got overwhelming support (she doesn’t), but because her support is very solid and will crawl over broken glass to support her in the primaries. She’ll win most of them with 40-45% of the vote, but that will be enough as in most of them she’ll come in first.
Its an open question as to whether or not, nominated, she can win the general election. Democrats officially rub their hands with glee over the prospect of a Palin nomination – but, then again, they rubbed their hands with glee over the prospect of meeting Reagan in the political field. But Palin does have high negatives – she has been relentlessly slandered by the left, sometimes attacked on the right. Whether she’d be able to overcome all that and convince a majority to back her over Obama remains to be seen – and, of course, will depend in large measure on how Obama fares.
But make no mistake about it, if she runs and wins, each step of the way she’ll be scaring the daylights out of the Ruling Class. As it looks more and more that she might win, they’ll get ever more furious in their attempts to stop her. They are afraid she’ll come to town and just entirely throw over everything in DC the Ruling Class has built for their owe wealth and power. They’re right to have that fear – as a representative of the middle class, Palin likely won’t give a darn whom she offends as she makes the government responsive to the middle class.
And I think, as it turns out, that what we really need is a middle class revolutionary to get in there to change things. My preferred candidate of all candidates remains Bobby Jindal – the son of immigrants knows all about getting ahead in America the honest, hard working way – but as he doesn’t seem to enthused about running in 2012 (he is, still, very young – and can easily wait until 2016 or 2020, or even later), Palin may end up being my gal for 2012.