…just about anything can happen. As of July 29th, Rasmussen has Romney with a slight lead, but the more important part of the poll is that Obama is polling significantly under 50% with only a little more than 3 months left to election day: usually, a very deadly position for an incumbent to be in. Still, as I said, a lot can happen. It only took 100 days for Napoleon to come roaring back from Elba, take over France, start a war and then lose the Battle of Waterloo. So, brace yourself for anything.
As for me, I’m feeling pretty confident – in fact, about as confident as I was in July of 2004 at the GOP prospects. Those of you who remember the old Blogs for Bush days might recall that I never wavered in my conviction that Bush would be re-elected. So far, I haven’t seen anything which makes me worry – from what I have gathered Obama is clearly working on a strategy of merely getting 270 electoral votes. He cannot possibly win the 53% of the popular vote he won in 2008 – that hope is gone and has been gone since election night, 2010. Obama can do this – he can cobble together 270 even if he loses the popular vote by a million but it is extraordinarily difficult to do. He has to roll sixes again and again.
Romney starts the election with 180 electoral votes: this represents the States that McCain won in 2008. The chances of any of them flipping to Obama in 2012 are nil. Immediately, we can move Indiana and North Carolina back to the GOP – they went for Obama extremely narrowly and are generally strong GOP States. Then we take a look at Florida (Obama by 2.5 percentage points) and Ohio (Obama by 4 percentage points). Given the erosion of Obama’s support and the results of 2010 we can probably count those two States in the GOP column. That would bring Romney’s electoral total up to 253 – 17 away from the White House. The States in play are NV, CO, MN, IA, WI, MI, PA, VA and NH holding a total of 94 electoral votes: Romney only has to win 17 of them. Much easier for Romney than Obama…Obama could do very well and hold on to all of them except NV and VA and he’s still lose (Obama could also lose by losing NV and either WI or MN – this would make it a 269/269 tie and the GOP controlled House would then elect Romney). If Obama loses three of the nine toss up States, he’s lost. If he loses Pennsylvania, alone, he’s lost. He can lose NH and NV and still win but if he loses those then any of the remaining 7 going to Romney means Obama has lost.
And, of course, all this is predicated upon a close fought campaign – that it will go down to the wire and we’re all up at 2am Eastern time on November 7th still waiting for the race to be called. On the other hand, some analysis I’ve seen indicates that most polling is over-sampling Democrats by more than 6 percentage points – which means that even the close States where Obama has a slight lead are actually States where Romney is ahead…and the States where Obama is slightly behind are actually out of reach for Obama. There is also a chance of a rather larger GOP turnout than expected – the Indiana GOP primary opened my eyes quite a bit. Lugar was supposed to lose by 3 percentage points or so – he lost by 22. This means the polling was not picking up a huge number of highly engaged GOPers who showed up to vote on Primary Day and will show up, again, on election day. Remember, the 1980 race between Reagan and Carter was officially “too close to call” in polling …. right up to the moment when Reagan trounced Carter by 10 percentage points. If the polling is off by over-sampled Democrats and/or under-sampled GOPers, then it could be quite an early night on November 6th.
For me, on election night, I’ll be watching for a couple things – if FL is called for Obama, then its over: Obama has been re-elected. If VA is called for Romney, then its over: Romney has won. If PA is called for Romney, then its going to be a landslide, crushing win for Romney and the GOP.
However it comes out, remember that the main thing is to be focused on what is important: beating Obama. Don’t pay too much attention to the ups and downs of polling and for goodness sakes don’t pay the least attention to whatever is the MSM “meme ‘o the day”…the MSM is entirely in the tank for Obama. Volunteer, keep the faith, and vote – that is all we can do and leave the rest up to God.
Oh, and make fun of liberals, ’cause they’re dumb and easily made fun of. We can keep doing that, too…
UPDATE: Black pastors form anti-Obama group over his gay marriage “re-evolution”:
A group of conservative black pastors are responding to President Barack Obama’s
support(change from support back in the day to opposition when he figured it would help in 2008 and now back to support ’cause he thinks it will help him in 2012) of same-sex marriage with what they say will be a national campaign aimed at rallying black Americans to rethink their overwhelming support of the President…
Funny how in the long run it might turn out that electing our first black President was the catalyst in breaking the Democrats hold on the African-American vote…