Well first of all, let’s take into account that this is a center right country and always has been. In June of 2010, Gallup conducted a poll wherein, 42% of Americans self identified themselves as conservative, and just 20% self identified themselves as liberal. This fact was never more evident than in November of 2010, when conservatives swept local and national elections. And despite what you will hear in the media, and from the Obama regime, the November 2010 election was a referendum on Obama, and Pelosi’s management of the economy which by most measures, has become worse. From CNN Money – “Only 29% of CEOs said they expect to hire more employees in the next six months, down from 36% in the last quarter. Company leaders are also cutting back on capital spending plans: just 30% expected to increase spending, compared to 43% last quarter.”, and a lot of this uncertainty stems from the “fiscal cliff” issue, and Obama’s inability to convince Americans, or even members of his own party that raising taxes on the “rich” will resolve our problems. Of course, everyone knows that it won’t, but that fact hasn’t stopped Obama from demagoguing the issue. Set aside the fact that Obama has never submitted a serious budget, with his last attempt earlier in the year, not receiving one single vote in either Congressional Chamber, not even from his own party. Not one single vote!!! How can anyone be reelected, or even elected for that matter, that is incapable of submitting a serious budget? Finally on this note is the fact that a conservative Governor just held off on all out liberal assault and won a recall election in a very blue state. Thank you Governor Walker.
Now let’s bring into question the only issue that Obama may have had the upper hand on, and that was foreign policy. That is until just recently when his misguided policies are now literally blowing up in his, and our faces. Relations with the ME are at an all time low, and Obama surrogate and UN Ambassador Susan Rice outright lied to the American people for days following the Embassy attacks, a fact of which is well known by many, no thanks to the sycophantic, Obama loving media. Obama has never visited Israel, denigrated Netanyahu in an off mike conversation with Sarkozy, continues to give Iran more time and confidence, and has done nothing in regards to Syria, where the real massacre is taking place. Outside of allowing the military to take out UBL, of which his braggadocio has helped incited current ME violence, his foreign policy has been confusing and ineffective.
Now we need to consider Obama’s plan for the next four years, because this is after all, a referendum on Obama, not Mitt Romney. Although Mitt Romney does have a comprehensive plan, and the background and experience to get the job done, this election will be decided on Obama’s plan, which by all accounts, is more of the same. He just needs more time, according to pundits and himself. Well thinking people realize that nearly 4 years is enough time to see some positive results, of which there just hasn’t been enough, set aside the fact that some economists are thinking that hyperinflation may be headed our way soon, gas prices have more than doubled, unemployment is headed upward, and family incomes are on the decline. And what is Obama’s answer? Higher taxes, higher insurance premiums due to Obamacare, more regulation, and more redistribution, and according to him, it just needs more time to work. I don’t think many people are buying that.
Finally the polls, which are misleading to say the least, mostly because they over sample Democrats and base their expected turn out on 2008 numbers, which by any measure was a very unusual election with unusually high turn out numbers in several categories. Also, I believe the most recent swing state polls are over sampling Democrats by a minimum of 5 percentage points. The following is the conclusion of a very good Hugh Hewitt interview with Jay Cost: “How do you get a 4 point Democratic advantage for this president on the top line number with a tie among independents? The only way you get that is through an overwhelming advantage in terms of partisan identification for Democrats.”
Most of the mainstream media will do everything they can to see that Obama is reelected, and they prove that daily in their polling and in their analysis. I base my opinion on the fact that we are a center right country, the November 2010 election outcomes, the Walker win in WI, and the failed policies of Obama. I could be wrong, but I do expect a Romney victory in November.